tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 20, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
alix: all eyes on september as cti making the prediction will raise rates. we will look at those odds. joe: southern migration, americans are moving south. we have three charts you won't want to miss. alix: we have to begin with stocks, ugly, brutal day for the arkets and we accelerated, and it was the worst fall for the s&p in nearly two months, the worst of the nasdaq. joe: this is a real selloff. this is a painful -- we saw a lot of pain in the media stocks that were getting hammered after bernestein.from netflix got slammed. some of the tech high-fliers. alix: the media stocks, the
netflix and googles of the world , and 106. and you do have the media stocks approaching correction territory. joe: those are the ugly charts. and people are worrying about the business models and saying they are totally doomed. you can't look at them. everything was a sell everything kind of day. alix: it flirted with the level many times and dipped about nine times in the past couple of months. looks like a straight line down. joe: another thing, people are buying gold today. not much, but one of those days they are buying gold. alix: you hate gold. i want to take a deep dive in my bloomberg terminal. what you are looking at here is the percentage of stocks on the new york stock exchange that are
doing well and closing above the 200 moving day average. can you? it is slowly falling. it has been falling. and up 40% and now 37%. the good stocks are doing less good. joe: they are disappearing. they are just disappearing the good stocks. joe: i want to look into my terminal. , see story overnight this yellow line is against the dollar. it fell about 250 against the dollar. yesterday, it was around that. so, they have let it float, absolutely getting clobbered. on the flip side. it's a minerals company that is
listed in london and surging up over 15%. it is devaluing to make exporters more competitive. this company is just an example of a company that exports from the country and loves the devaluation. alix: you see the ripple through. you are looking at the s&p seeing the worst selloff since 2014. it has the ripple effects. joe: where are we going to's the easing, trying to steal exports from other countries. alix: commodities didn't sell off and that was perplexing because energy and materials had been leading the way and we didn't see that today. look inside my bloomberg terminal and looking at the industrial metals and the correction we have seen since 2012. that was about 13%. this selloff here was about 17%. and this selloff was 16%.
the selloff we have seen so far in industrial metals is about 20% and we look like we are nearing a bottom if history is any guide. what does that do for stocks? joe: on a day when people are throwing everything away, one thing that is incredibly weak -- all right. massive selloff in global markets took down u.s. stocks. i bring in our guest joining us rom california alix: guys, thanks for being here. kevin, what did you make of the selloff today? guest: from my perspective, i thought we were going to talk about the fed. what i see around the world is bad belief systems going to die and the major belief system that
was running around the world was that central banks were printing tons of money and used to go play in exotic places with your investment dollars. so i think that that theory is coming unhinged and the u.s. is going to be the beneficiary of it, but you have to get through the waves first. joe: how ugly was today's selloff? guest: it was definitely ugly and one of the worst days of the year, down 2%. and 10 major groups in the s&p decline. some of the biggest losers of today were the stocks that had en the biggest winners, like etflix and apple and google. the biggest stocks that had
gained the most in the bull market. can't look well for stocks. not just this one pocket of the market isn't doing well. maybe i want to sell that. man, i want to get out. definitely doesn't bode well in the short-term. alix: we want to get to julie at the breaking news desk. reporter: revenue rose by 24% and looks like it came in a little bit ahead. 19 cents, 18 cents is what was estimated and the company is getting forecasts as well. 2016 revenue growth of 23%. i assume it's in its 2016. and the company also talking about earnings per share of the ear of 70 to 72 cents. let me check what analysts had
been anticipating. its core customer relationship, is core business in that type of software has been wanning to some extent and have been introducing marketing, data, and been trying to pull in some larger customers. that does seem to be working, at least by these numbers. shares were up 14% year to date and initially they pulled back in reaction to these numbers and now going to little change. looks like investors are tryinging to figure out from all of this. i'm going to keep looking at these numbers. one more. the billings number, that's for unrealized revenue. stuff that has been billed and not yet collected. billings up 19.8%. the estimate was for a gain of 17 1/2%. looks like a pretty strong
number there. we will bring you an update. alix: thanks, julie. kevin, when you look at the market and see the stocks, the etflix, the gool will -- the googles, a.m. zongsh a.m.a zons of the world, what needs to be ropped up? guest: it is odd, that the primary conversation that everyone is talking about whether the fed should raise rates or not. it's hard to believe that that's even a topic.
joe: what are they doing in light of this aggressive selling? guest: coming back from vacation, number one. they are buying running into protection on single stocks and on major equity indexes. i put call volume and it was the highest in three years. and they say man, i want to protect what i have gained so far. there is little bit of panic in he options market. there is a little bit of panic. alix: you can kind of see it in gold ap the treasury market as well. kevin, do you think we will see a rotation in the safety trades as well? guest: i would like to take advantage of the fact that they are going to go the other way and look for something in the equity market to be lower first and higher tomorrow morning if
it gaps down. i think people should avoid jumping in on this idea of flight to quality. i think that i have seen in the market now for over a year, it's is quite resilient. these are things that used to happen as little as a year or year and-a-half ago. i like the flexibility and resiliency in it. i remain encouraged from a system standpoint we aren't facing things that we faced at the peak of the credit supercycle. alix: thanks for joining us. kevin you are staying with us. joe: how painful is the selloff of commodities? when we get back, we'll show you who is seeing their wealth shrink dramatically. ♪
alix: before the break, we told you a certain billionaire's club is getting smaller. joe: when the giant went public in 011, six people were turned into billionaires. today only three are billionaires. alix: the stock has fallen every year. joe: they are saying that's how we knew when the six billionaires were made overnight. big damage done to the company. alix: pulling out money to pay dividend to investors. julie is at the breaking news desk on pack ard and gap. reporter: it is short of what
analysts had been anticipating. personal computer sales are down and has been hurting the company and going to be splitting up. one business is going to offer technology and sales to business and the other is consumer. the fourth physician call year forecast. the company brought up the lower end of its forecastsed earnings but brought the top end. gap, leading analyst estimates, they have been working to revamp the company. profit overall, 64 cents a share. there was a move to close 175 of the gap stores. alix: good stuff. thanks so much. joe: greece's prime minimums ter announce -- minister announced his resignation. said they need to deliver a new mandate.
political observers say the election is a way for him to shore up his support. didn't name a date but government officials told us that the vote to be held on september 20. alix: the markets got it wrong. the fed will still hike in september. that is according to ctigroup. it will take a bunker buster to stop the fed from moving in september to be a game changer and an event will be important and global. or more, i bring back kevin, kevin, what do you say? guest: it is a bold call. i really like the term that jp morgan used for the fed corridor and moving that up from the 25 to 50 is interesting. me personally, i would rather personally let the market bang
up against the upper end of the existing corridor right around 25 and then see what happens. i think it's a bold call. i think in reality they don't know. so people that say they do know are putting themselves out there, because every indication from the federal -- fed is it is a tough decision and why are they talking about the rate? we are not going back to rates targeting for a long time. joe: you have have called it the keffyip rule. can you explain what it is and what the fed should be doing right now? guest: shows that the fed, proper policy a or lsap when the neutral rate became zero and our model says
the neutral rate, the rate in fed is not restrictive is right about 25. and so, the longer they stay and keep the effective rate down around 12, they are healthy. to the extent that they are supposed to raise the rate, that is the real question and what i try to stress to other people that are crazy enough to listen to us is that we shouldn't even be talking about targeting the rates. the real question for the fed is if they moved it up, they would jaw-bohningr, major campaign to say we are going to sit here a long time. alix: what keeps you up at night? guest: it's funny that you said that. one thing i wrote down in my notes is if the value of the tenge keeps me up at night, time to throw in the towel.
can't afford. alix: what about commodities? that bums me out. joe: a demographic shift in migration patterns. we are looking at america's demographic issues. our guest joins us from atlanta. alix: where are people moving to and where are they going to most? guest: the pre-recession trend phoenix, atlanta, las vegas and florida. this is interesting. in addition to all the houses we have to build, we are going to need to build the infrastructure to support them. in states like here in georgia, republicans found a way to raise taxes to pay for this. and we will see it in other states. as we need more and more construction and entry-level jobs, we may see rhetoric.
joe: we have this map on migration for people in their 30's. what does this tell you? guest: so everyone knows what millenials have done whether new york, san francisco, d.c. and the question is when people move in their 0's, where are they going to go? the sun belt is participating. but the big area is colorado and the pest. nd the reason -- pacific northwest. and california has gotten so unaffordable, new migration patterns like denver, portland and seattle. alix: what kind of pocketbook do they come with? guest: they are pretty young and haven't been set by the recession, but rentals in downtown areas. at what point are they going to be able to move into the
suburbs? alix: does that mean that those states will boom i guess is the question? guest: the question is when. we continue to believe over the next 10, 15 years, we are going to see a tailwind on single-family housing. joe: speaking of housing and that is a topic that we talk about, estimated household formation by age group and the real acceleration in household formation is happening at the older end of the demographics. what do you think about this chart? guest: this is a chart that was put out earlier this week. the growth is from older households and quirk in the data and now all of a sudden, baby boomers are moving out of their parents' households and 64-year-old are turning 65 and
expected to grow in the next 10, 20 years. joe: you are managing a portfolio that had wild stuff in the market. has anything from your perspective changed at all? guest: the real stumbling block for us is oil. first earlier in the year, the actual move in commodities but the issue has been as oil has fallen, lower interest rates and anything that benefits has been hurt as well. the underlying strength in the housing and labor markets can offoffset the commodities. alix: shouldn't the slowdown in oil be a good thing for the demographics, cheaper oil, more money to spend, more money to move? guest: yes, and if you look at faster.i.'s, it has been
alix: dear earnings coming out tomorrow. the one thing you need to pay attention to, inventory. you see inventories rising up right around 85. that is how many days it takes to sell the stock of inventory. it is down porter by quarter. so it is down but elevated. joe: another thing you don't want to miss tomorrow -- market/pmi for manufacturing. we have empire fed manufacturing report.
announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." here, theeff flake young senator from arizona. he has been an outspoken advocate for restoring ties between the two countries. but on saturday, he announced his opposition to the resident iran nuclearent's accord. what in the end made the difference to yse